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Modeling group perceptions using stochastic simulation : scaling issues in the multiplicative AHP

机译:使用随机模拟对群体感知进行建模:乘法AHP中的缩放问题

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摘要

This paper proposes a new decision support approach for applying stochastic simulation to the multiplicative analytic hierarchy process (AHP) in order to deal with issues concerning the scale parameter. The paper suggests a new approach that captures the influence from the scale parameter by making use of probability distributions. Herein, the uncertainty both with regard to the scale and the inherent randomness from the parameter is captured by probabilistic input and output distributions. Provided that each alternative and criteria under consideration are independent it is assumed that the embedded uncertainty from the progression factors remains the same. The result is then an interval estimate for each alternative’s final scores. This can lead to overlapping intervals of scores which may be interpreted as possible rank reversals. Thus, the decision support approach makes it possible to calculate the probability of overlapping for any given set of pairwise comparisons.
机译:本文提出了一种新的决策支持方法,用于将随机模拟应用于乘法层次分析法(AHP),以解决与规模参数有关的问题。本文提出了一种新方法,该方法可以利用概率分布来捕获比例参数的影响。在此,通过概率输入和输出分布来捕获关于尺度的不确定性和来自参数的固有随机性。假设所考虑的每个备选方案和标准都是独立的,则假定来自进展因素的内含不确定性保持不变。然后,结果是每个替代方案的最终分数的时间间隔估算值。这可能导致分数的重叠间隔,这可以解释为可能的排名反转。因此,决策支持方法使得有可能计算任何给定的成对比较集合的重叠概率。

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